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Worldwide Exchange

News/Business. Ross Westgate, Kelly Evans. Ross Westgate and Kelly Evans consider the business stories that have global significance. New.

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U.s. 14, China 13, Us 12, Sandy 11, Adp 6, Obama 6, Sirius 5, Kellogg 5, Romney 4, Chris Christie 4, Uk 3, Butday 3, Dan 3, New York 3, Europe 3, S&p 3, Sony 2, Exxonmobile 2, Barclays 2, Pfizer 2,
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  CNBC    Worldwide Exchange    News/Business. Ross Westgate, Kelly Evans. Ross Westgate and  
   Kelly Evans consider the business stories that have global...  

    November 1, 2012
    5:00 - 6:00am EDT  

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these are your headlines. >> a tough start to a new month for equities as all through u.s. indexes snap a four month winning streak in the first day of trade after the market shut down. >> campaigning resumes as the northeast assesses the damage from super storm sandy. good and big earnings day for oil giants giants. shell sees a fall and exxonmobile due to report before the opening bell. >> growth recovery may be near. official october pmi bouncing back into expansion territory.
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we're under way just one hour and an awful lot to to get to. >> new york city still struggling to right itself after monday's super storm. one stap he have the big apple will return, the mta will resume partial subway service on 14 lines. la guardia airport will also reopen at 7:00 a.m. with limited service. amtrak says it will try to restore service to penn station come friday. >> homes in bay ahead are seriously damaged or destroyed. president obama got a firsthand look with governor chris christie yesterday afternoon. >> and danielle lee joins us, she's in the town of toms river. and we know this is one of the hartest hit areas. with you tell us how extensive the damage is? >> all of those popular
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summertime vacation communities are cut off from society. and there are stand reminders, bits of people's lives ripped to shreds. people here beginning a third day without power. millions of people throughout the state have no power. they are really getting ready to get back to life as normal. many walking around just wanting to get over to the jersey shore, those that have being a straighted, straigh to see what was left. and they can't do it possibly for a couple days because of the safety issue. just yesterday we got to see the streets filled with sand and the homes ripped from the foundat n foundations as emergency crews went door to door to get everyone out. now they're focused on the restoration, making those
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communities safe so they can begin letting people to get back to their homes to see what if anything if can he salvage. people trying to get back to normal. long lines for gas. also just a hot meal from people finally come out from taking shelter. many people will likely be back here today seeing if they can possibly get over to the shore to get a look. reporting live in toms river, i'm danielle lee. back to you. >> okay. thanks very much for getting up for us. appreciate that report this morning. as we take a look at how markets are trading, yesterday markets reopened and we saw pretty muted trading session. in fact we've now in the close of october seen stocks fall for the first time in almost four years. we've seen the worst october that is in almost four years. we've seen the first monthly decline since i believe april or may.
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take a look at what's happening here as we gear up for the start of the u.s. trading session. a couple key psychological levels. dow trying to hold up at 13,10 o. 10, but implied to open lower by about 20. futures in the red. s&p 5001403. the 1400 level has been one we've been keeping an eye on all week. we'll have keep economic reports out later today. overnight the cnbc ftse global 300 gives you a sense of the activity we're seeing. it's been a mixed bag. now we're flat, but we have seen anywhere from slight gains and slight losses. asia was weaker, but china was better. you're pea pea an bourses, for the most part ftse 100 adding 0.3%, fractionally higher for the cac 40. ibex is shedding 0.4% talk of extending the short selling ban. >> wouldn't be is surprise.
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what about the bond market? ten year bund yields a little lower. 1.47. spanish yields 5.64%. still relatively contained. we'll keep our eyes on gilts. we'll get the latest pmi from manufacturing. it's the ism equivalent to the uflt k. yields a little higher, 1.89. and we get the ism, as well. and we'll take a look at that. u.s. yields currently trading at 1.71%. so currently markets are concerned, take a look at this one. dollar-yen, we got up to around 80.13. pretty much near the four month high we hit last bring. the yen of course got a bounce back after the bank of japan data earlier in the week, but dollar putting on some gains will. euro-dollar, stuck in this range really particularly in the last week. china pmi overnight, official number 50.2, 50.3 is what we're looking for, but the economy
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gaining some traction. did it do much for the sock market? let's find out. >> official manufacturing pmi as well as hsbc private both for the month of october showing the chinese economy may be getting traction. and that data gave mainland markets a shot in the arm. shanghai composite rallied 1.7% with the property sector leading the charge. earnings up about 10% on year. we also saw broad based gains in industrials and commodity plays. that strong showing helped the hang seng finish firmly in the green also boosted by the hong kong monetary authorities in the forex markets. industrials and developers extended gains. meanwhile the nikkei ticks up ending higher by about 0.2% helped by china related construction and shipping share, but panasonic got whacked down
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20% to their lowest level since 1978 after a forecasted huge four year losses. elsewhere the kospi slipped 0.7%, heavy selling put them lower. sensex higher by 0.4% at the moment. ross, back to you you. >> now it was a rocky end of the month for wall street as generators powered the exchanges for the first day of business following super storm sandy's devastation and the numbers weren't much better. all three indexes snapped a four month winning streak p. the nasdaq posted its worse october since 2008. netflix was the highest mover, it gained more than 45% helped i'm sure by the news that carl icahn has bought a stake in the
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video streaming company. joining us is managing director at westwood capital. dan, thanks for getting up to join us. so it wasn't a great october for stocks. but looking forward now in the start of november trade given the impact of hurricane sandy, how important is it now for us to sit above or at some of he's psychological levels that we mentioned earlier? 13,000 on the dow, 1400 for the s&p? >> clearly the market doesn't want to break below that. it keeps resisting it. so it will be very interesting to see over the next few days what will happen. obviously in the short term, we're going to see the northeast somewhere around 25% of the u.s. economy. we're going to see some curtailment in gdp, if commerce in general during this period of time, it will probably have a slight negative blip on october gdp numbers and somewhat into november, as well. i think a lot of what's going on this week, let's wait until friday. friday is a jobs day. this is traditionally low volume
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week. i was a little surprised that there wasn't a little more volatility in the markets yesterday when they reopened. clearly there would have been a lot of pent up trading it demand one way or the other. and also with the fiscal year end for mutual funds. so clearly people are sort of sitting on their hands and waiting and seeing and we'll see what happens today. >> yesterday relatively smooth one might argue in discovering pricing. how do we trade through today's data? with the employment number out tomorrow, does that still overshadow everything? >> yeah, i think so. the fun thing thing is we're sitting here with this incredible storm which believe me having lived through was quite incredible. but we do have a presidential election next week. and that before the storm was the big story. there is going to be some going to such an incredible shifting
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event, you'll have some reticence about taking positions. obviously one would expect there to be a ridiculously euphoric rally if romney were on to win. i don't believe he will. in fact i don't favor him winning. but having said that -- i know, no politics. >> no, i take issue with the statement that markets will have a rally if romney wins because we've seen a number of commenters putting out notes from firms from wall streerts who support romney nevertheless saying they think some of the price action, weaker stock market, a little bit of back up in bond yields may be owed to the fact that markets pricing in romney victory and actually not liking what it sees. p. >> i don't agree with that at all. i think on this side of the pond, the dominant view is that obama will probably succeed. i don't think the market is pricing that in at all. i think if anything, folks are continuing with the same means which are very, very weak europe, concern prior to the pmi
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number today about china, the fact that aggregate demands in general is under pressure. this is still a big global story about aggregate demand relative to the supply of labor capacity and capital globally. we don't have a sufficient amount of demand i don't know if the the.moment i number was a view of managers. so my biggest concern going forward is going to be winter prices. do we see effectively dumping from the asian economy. >> good point. and i want to pick up the politics conversation in a little bit. dan will stay with us. >> and on the agenda, we have
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the october adp employment report out at 8:5 a.m. the new adp, right? >> moody's analytics is taking over. adp has been widely criticized for not exactly predicting. oh, the horror. but dweeking the methodology moody's is and in so doing, yesterday or previously had posted the revised september figures. it's the october data that we're still waiting for. there was some confusion in the market yesterday. adp i think is unfairly criticized sometimes. but the headline numbers will probably be significantly less. just because of the methodology. >> and you take weekly jobless
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over adp. and we also get third quarter productivity. labor costs rising. and if that's not enough, we also get the october ism manufacturing index. >> pfizer we'll hear from after being delayed from tuesday. after the close, we get numbers from aig, starbucks. >> signaling little need perhaps for a policy boost at least until after the leadership transition. >> we'll have more on that next. stick around.
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these are your headline. all three u.s. indexes snap a in our month winning streak. >> u.s. election campaigning resumes as the northeast assesses the damage from super storm sandy. >> and shell sees profit drop by 15% on on lower crude prices. earnings also seen tune for sx on mobile.
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exxonmobile. well, china's factories are trying to stage a bit of a comeback.well, china's factorie trying to stage a bit of a comeback. sub indexes including new orders and employment rose to levels we haven't seen in many months. analysts say perhaps now there's less need for the central bank to bring in further rate cuts. still the pboc is working to keep money markets loose. dan, if these china figures are improving, do you believe china is bottoming and will we see less policy stimulus from here? >> one of the concerns we have is we did see increased subsidy out of china. it reflects the opinion of management as to whether or not they can sell their product. part of selling one's product is
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price. to the extent that you are lowering price and getting increased demand, you feel good about things especially if you can make money at that level because of subsidies. so the real issue for china i think going forward is clearly they lost an enormous amount of demand from europe. and one of the things about european demand in to china, it was generally at the higher margin side of the equation. so they lost some of their best business. and then sort of a follow-on to that without the european business, where is the u.s. business now if in fact there could be some curtailment in u.s. demand as a result of something like a storm for example. but right now really the u.s. has been the driver demand wise for china and the concern that i have and obviously a lot of other people do with regard to our domestic manufacturing sector is the extent to which we're facing challenges on a pricing level from china and elsewhere. >> as you mentioned, that will
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complicate the leadership transition next week for sure. dan, stay with us. we'll be back with you in just a second. >> no signs of any real pick up from japan's consumer giant in their latest earnings. still battling a stubbornly strong yen, weak demand. sony numbers all missed market expectations. market cap 120 billion, this year worth only $11 billion. >> ouch. >> how the mighty can fall. >> and panasonic trading at it lowest level since 1978. so really a lot of trouble in the japanese tech sector. sharp lost more than $3 billion in its latest quarter despite being profitable a year earlier. still sharp's president admits
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the company will turn to profit helped by massive job cuts and the sale of overseas assets. >> and still to come, big lines at gas stations in the u.s. hit by sandy. we'll discuss the outlook for prices with a guest who says shortages will continue for several days in the hardest hit areas.
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plenty of focus on energy today. weaker prices taking their toll on shell. posting a 15% drop in its third quarter profit following a fall in prices. result below analyst expectations. if x. on mobile expected to report a fall in its profit today. revenues expected to contract by around 9:00. 9%. and from the energy companies to the gas pumps.
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>> shortage caused by hurricane sandy is causing lines in some cases miles long. joining us for monday is jonathan citron. thanks for calling in. you follow energy markets quite a bit. how long and how likely are the shortages to persist? >> i think we'll see the shortage persist for a short period of time. they're doing all they can to alleviate not only the damage, but it's all about getting the power back on. we need to get the glass to the pumps and the pumps working.
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so i think it's a matter of days rather than the weeks. the damage is far worse than anything that anyone ever imagined. but i think we'll start to see probably by the end of the weekend, early next week, things to start to pick up very slowly but pick up. and i think the long term implications will be a lot less than we're an anticipatinantic. >> how much of u.s. refining has been affected by the storm? >> on the eastern side, we saw 70% taken out. some because dues to the storm on the northeast and some as a result of refineries shutting down and idling their services. the number nationally is a lot less, more like a 20% number. over the entire country, i think
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you'll see very also impact on gas prices. certainly we've seen a bump at the pump, if you will, on the east coast. and that should continue for a little while as demand goes up. but again on the national level, i don't think we'll see too much of an impact. >> when you get rising petrol prices on the east coast, might you get also a fall in oil prices because of reduced refinery demand? >> it's what i call a two tier market. demand actually drops. and we'll see that as refiners are able to use crude to produce fuel, there will be less demand on that end and we'll see the price -- i would think that
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would have a small very slight effect on the price of crude itself, but wul see a little bit of a bump in the coming days at the price of the pump itself. so there is a disparity between the two prices of fuel and crude, but it should come back together nicely in the near term. >> curious, too, how the two tier market could impact earnings for exxon for example and other major oils going forward. >> this seems to have an impact on companies all over the world of course. but i think other than having an affect on americans, i don't think it will have an impact around the world. the super storm had an effect here on the east coast, but i think that we'll see a return to normalcy. this is not going to produce a major market movement in either
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fuel or oil. >> all right, jonathan, calling in from michigan this morning, thank you very much. we have manufacturing pmi just about to come out of the uk. this is their equivalent. and let's bring that to you now. uk manufacturing pmi weaker than expected, 47.5 in october. the poll was 48.48.4 in september. so this is weaker than expected. new orders index down at 47.7. 49.9 in september. manufacturers shedding jobs, costs rising faster. not a great report. sterling-dollar weakening off the session high on the back of that 1.6146. so disappointing manufacturing pmi number out of the uk. stick around, we'll bring
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you the latest on how sandy is impacting the retail and energy sector and out candidates will go back on the campaign trail.
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2450es are the headlines from rn at globe. >> it's a cautious start to november trading.
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investors bracing for major political events after all three u.s. indexes fall. >> presidential campaigns resume as the northeast assess the damage. and october pmi bouncing back into expansion territory. the president hit some hard hit areas yesterday in new
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jersey with governor chris christie. >> it's been a great working relationship to make sure that we're doing the job that people immediate us to do. and i can't thank the president enough for his personal concern and compassion. >> for those like the people i just had the chance to meet on on this block and throughout new jersey, throughout the region whose lives have been up ended. my second message is we are here for you. and we will not forget. we will follow up to make sure that you get all the help that you need until you've rebuilt. >> meanwhile a new nbc "wall street journal" maris poll shows that just a few days before the election, president obama is leading mitt romney in three battleground states, wisconsin, iowa and new hampshire. you can head to y nbc.com to
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reach john harwood's take on the poll and the race for the white house. sdwr joining us is a political reporter at the "washington post" following all of this very closely of course. sean, thanks for joining us. i want to start with this dynamic een obama and chris christie. what's the chris christie strategy here? because it seems to be taking some of the momentum away from his own party. >> yeah, this is really interesting. you have somebody in governor christie who has been an outson critic of president obama. but what we've heard the last three days is nothing but praise for the president and the pearl response to his needs in new jersey. so a little bit of a different tone there. but in times like these when you have natural disasters, you tend to see politicians put politics aside. that said, there's certainly a political up side for obama appearing alongside one of mitt romney's top surrogates yesterday. so sort of an interesting dynamic and unexpected one.
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>> you see the latest poly just talked about, it suggests that the markets still pricing in effectively an obama win. does that indicate that you buy this latest poll? >> what we're seeing in the latest poll numbers is sort of what we've been seeing the last couple weeks here which is a slight edge to obama in in some of the most important swing states. there was polling yesterday in the state of ohio, the all-important state of ohio, that no republican has ever worn the white house without carrying, that showed obama up slightly. we're seeing close races in virginia, florida, and of course wisconsin where the president is going to be today when he resumes campaigning. so it's close, but the president certainly has a slight edge in these important swing states that both candidates need to win
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to get to 270. >> how hard has the last few days been for romney with the president inspecting storm damage, how tough is his job? >> its eye certainly a challenge. you have somebody in the president who is the commander in chief. if you're mitt romney, you want to be a part of the conversation somehow. he spent tuesday participating in storm relief efforts, taking time away from the campaign trail, but it's certainly difficult to stay in the conversation the way he wants to. with obama back on the campaign trail, romney in virginia, but certainly the last three days, it's been a challenge for romney to stay in the conversation with obama and to show that he can be just as much of a commander in chief than the president. >> how do you think the jobs
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number on friday plays in to the poll on tuesday? >>per late in the cycle to have too much effect. but i was absolutely stunned by christ christie's remarks. when you take that in combination with his speech at the republican convention which was really about himself, it really makes you wonder whether this man has his view not on 2012 but on 2016 when in theory he would be running for president. so it's a very, very interesting election with fine sensitivities to people's motivations. >> is there part of him that wouldn't mind romney losing? >> i think there's a very large part of him, and he's a very large man, that would not like romney to win. >> it's interesting, christie
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has his own election next year if he runs for re-election of governor of new jersey. so we'll see what his intentions are moving forward. >> sean, thanks for joining us this morning. dan sticks around for one more. >> take a quick look at what's happening with u.s. futures as we gear up for the start of trade. the second day back now after hurricane sandy. we're seeing red pretty much across the board. a couple key levels to watch. the dow jones industrial average futures has just breached that 13,000 level. we'll see whether it would whos this morning. >> and on the slate today, adp employment report, the new adp employment report out at 8:15, weekly jobless claims released 8:30, forecast to remimain
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unchanged. and third quarter productivity expected to rise 2%. and october ism manufacturing index. construction spending as well. and october consumer confidence, that was delayed from tuesday. and if that's not enough, we also have earnings. >> we were just talking about exxonmobile. they'll report. pfizer, too. we'll also hear from a patchy, kellogg, sirius xm, many of course delayed from earlier in the week.patchy, kellogg, sirius xm, many of course delayed from earlier in the week.ey, kellogg, sirius xm, many of course delayed from earlier in the week., kellogg, sirius xm, many of course delayed from earlier in the week.che, kellogg, sirius xm, many of course delayed from earlier in the week. and on that note, daniel, we mentioned this during earnings report the string of macro data. is it going to be about that in the trading session today in your view? >> yeah, again, i think people will be holding off until toll. the adp will move things this one direction or another, but i don't think we'll have an
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enormous amount of trading volume. i would have actually doubted what i'm saying over the course of the two days the market was shut, but i'm now of the opinion that really we'll see a very, very quiet environment from now really through the election. not just into the jobs number, but through the election. because i think there's just too much event risk out there for people to take any meaningful positions. >> great point. we'll leave it there. still to come, new york slowly coming back to life after sandy brought most of the state to a standstill. >> scott cohn will have the latest on the ground.
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apple you can see here during the month of october down nearly 11%. biggest monthly drop since november 2008. also just to remind you earlier we saw sony coming out with it numbers. market cap down to $11 billion. apple's market cap still way up, well over $500 billion. but not the best month for the world's biggest company.
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>> and a reminder these are your headlines. all three indexes snap a four month winning streak in october. u.s. election cam beening resumes as the northeast assesses the damage from super storm sandy. and shell sees profit drop by 15% on lower crude prices. earnings also expected to drop for exxonmobile. and new york city still struggling to right itself after monday's super storm, but one staple does return, the mta will resume partial subwayservice. scott cohn is in lower manhattan. is there any subway service where you are? >> no, and i think you can gather why that is. this part of manhattan is still pumping out the water. this flow of water here is coming from this building behind me, which was badly flooded on
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monday when sandy came through. so, yes, there is subway service uptown in parts of manhattan. it's vastly reduced, but at least there's something. and some of the commuter rail lines to bring people in from the suburbs are coming back, as well. so in parts of the city other than this where there is power and there is some subway service, the traffic has been horrendous, so they've instituted in restrictions. three people to a vehicle coming into the city this morning. and then you have to try and get down here if you work in the financial district. this city is still struggling mightily to recover. >> and we're seeing the effects felt globally as airports struggle to reopen. it sounds like laguardia will reopen at least with limited service this morning. but generally speaking how hard is to get into the city at this point? >> it's interesting that they're
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getting laguardia back and running. the arpirport is right on the water and it's flooded up to the gates. jfk, the major international airport as well as newark liberty, they're also reopening, but they have to get planes back because there were so many cancellations ahead of the storm. and the fact that they have the armies coming back is important, but again, it's a long climb. >> scott, thanks for all your reports this week. really appreciate it. take a look at u.s. lumber futures. they hit 19 month highs yesterday. by the way, this makes lumber one of the best perform as secretary classes in the world
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in october. >> three month performance not too bad either. when you look at the devastation in new jersey, -- >> it gets in to the bigger question of the bigger macro view. will it actually an longer term boost. >> or do you trade as a net-net flat. >> a lot are saying net-net flat. still to come, as the holiday season gets under way, is an sandy may mean a shift from fashion to necessity. ♪ ♪ ♪
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[ male announcer ] some day, your life will flash before your eyes. ♪ make it worth watching. ♪ the new 2013 lexus ls. an entirely new pursuit.
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european stocks are trying to trend hider. but we're pretty flat. ibex down slightly. slim gains in the european stocks for the month of october. >> and it looks like slim losses on wall street today ahead of the jobs report tomorrow in key political events next week. down jones industrial average trying to hold on to that 13,000 level. implied to open lower by about 30 points this morning. the s&p 500 is 1402. so we'll see if it can hold above that threshold. all state's third quarter profits more than quadrupled. still too early to tell how it will impact its fourth quarter results. all state is well capitalized to meet all its obligations to policyholders. >> based on the size of this storm, it will be significant but not material.
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this is not -- these types of events are in the -- >> i said second quarter. it was of course third quarter. analysts are suggesting firmer pricing in the insurance market next year could help allstate and others. it shares in frankfurt trade add building 0.15%. visa's fourth quarter profits beating forecasts. no make money from processing trk. via processed more than 14 billion transactions during the quarter and the decline in debit card volume has been slowing. and barclays being accused
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for allegedly manipulating prices. the bank and four former traders are said to have carried on out the activity from 2006 to 2008. barclays says it will fight the agen agency. and politics in europe not getting any better. david cameron, rebels within his own party voted against his eu budget plan. not what cameron was hoping for. he's worried it could lead to britt continue leaving the european union. there's a sense here as britain goes through austerity why we continuously are upping the budget for the european union, right? which i think a lot of people -- >> no, but of course given all
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this in the run up to these budget talks, it's clear that any fractions are being exacerbated -- any frictions are being exacerbated within the eu, will britd continue ultimately call a referendum? >> renegotiate. >> one of the questions that remains is how the retail sector will be affected by the storm. en early sense of will is likely to come from same store sales figures released throughout the da thedaaday. pal do you think the storm will intercept a positive trend? >> i think it is an interception, butday. pal do you think the storm will intercept a positive trend? >> i think it is an interception, butday. pal do you think the storm will intercept a positive trend? >> i think it is an interception, butpal do you thi intercept a positive trend? >> i think it is an interception, butday. pal do you think the storm will intercept a positive trend? >> i think it is an interception, but end of august and beginning of september last year, there was and i reason and then in new york, snow in october last year. so while the storm is bigger this year, it comes during mid
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week, it's pan spanning the third quarter into the fourth quarter. and i think compared to that, it won't be as big as what people expect. >> and certainly it depends what retailers you look at. if you look at home depot, lowes, and generac corp, ahead of what could be significant continued buying shares up 25% yesterday. >> one of the tricks is anticipate something that the market hasn't already figured out. obviously home depot and lowes, people already figured out that they would get building activity. one thing i'm looking at is somebody like sears get a boost. maybe people need to replace appliances that they're actual will you holding on off
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replacing. at the same time, saks fifth avenue has a big tourist contingent. 22% of their sales at just their manhattan sales, dhee have a bigger headwind. but in general, i think hard goods pickers for once will get a little boost. you're not thinking about your latest purse or next lipstick purchase when everybody is running for cover or heeding from the storm. >> when you look at october comparables, last year we had the snow. so i'm wondering where there will be a big impact or not. >> and it's always about the comparables. so last year if you remember september was early cold so that gave it a boost. this year september was slightly soft because there was a tough comparison. october last year was actually
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warm and then you have the snow in new york on top of that. so third quarter and october last year were a little tough. this is a bigger storm in magnitude, but again it's coming during mid week. a store like macys could be off, but it's not really a big loss. and then the other thing is things like people shopping in to the fourth quarter, you'll get those sales back. >> paul, thanks very co in our beat expectations p. >> and that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is up next.
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the road to recovery from super storm sandy is leading to long lines for gasoline as demand for fuel and generators surges around the tri-state area. millions are still without power, but the airports are starting to operate again with another major new york hub about to open. and the adp employment report will be released at 8:15 as we dwe gear up for friday's big jobs report. it is just five days until the election of 2012. "squawk box" begins right now.